Centro CRECE’s Road to Prosperity

Road to Prosperity Policy Brief | June 2026

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The 2022 and 2026 Oil Shocks: Implications and Policy Options for Puerto Rico

This policy brief offers a data-driven account of how the 2022 oil shock moved through Puerto Rico’s economy—tracing its effects across gasoline and electricity prices, inflation, output, and the labor market—and uses that episode as an empirical template for anticipating how the more recent 2026 shock could unfold. Building on this comparison, the brief makes the case that the 2026 event is more macroeconomically dangerous: although larger in magnitude, its real threat lies in its timing, striking an economy marked by dual stagnation and mounting tariff pressures, and stripped of the federal stimulus and labor-market momentum that cushioned the 2022 blow. The brief then sets out a concrete slate of policy options and business strategies—pairing immediate relief that keeps money circulating in the local economy with structural reforms that reduce Puerto Rico’s exposure to global volatility—to help the public and private sectors protect growth over the short and medium term.

Road to Prosperity Policy Brief | June 2025

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The Impact of the Welfare State on Puerto Rico’s Labor Participation Rate

The Center for Economic Renewal, Growth and Excellence (Centro CRECE) partnered with Intelligent Economics to explore Puerto Rico’s labor market and the impact of the welfare state on the labor participation rate. Our goal was to understand how social and public policies influence economic activity and workforce dynamics on the island. The findings of this study highlight the need to find a balance between social safety nets and labor market engagement. This study offers valuable insights that support the development of policies to promote economic growth, reduce poverty, and maximize workforce participation.

Road to Prosperity Policy Paper | February 2026

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Federal Funds in Puerto Rico: The ARRA Experience and Lessons for Economic Recovery

This policy paper examines how the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) was allocated and administered in Puerto Rico and evaluates its short-run macroeconomic impact. The paper traces the flow of $6.3 billion in federal stimulus across spending types; assesses administrative performance and oversight findings; and estimates a counterfactual economic trajectory using a simple Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model. The findings suggest that the ARRA was associated with significantly cushioning Puerto Rico’s downturn between 2009 and 2013, while underscoring the limits of temporary federal stimulus in addressing long-standing structural weaknesses. The study draws broader lessons for the design and implementation of current and future recovery efforts.

Data: This is the dataset used for the policy analysis in Section 4 of the Policy Paper, documenting how ARRA funds flowed in Puerto Rico between 2009 and 2013.